Some Blog Site

I know I said I wouldn’t have any more football posts for a while, but I forgot about the release of the 2011 NFL schedule. And between now and the start of the season, I may go back and analyze previous seasons to get more samples of prediction methods.

In the last week or two, we had the NFL draft and the announcement of the 2011 schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when (that is, if the NFL and players get their act together and resume football as we knew it), we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. During the course of 2010, I saw that predictions based on the previous season’s results were just as good as predictions that updated themselves week-by-week. View results of previous football seasons.

2010 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

• Arizona = 12-4
• Carolina = 7-9
• Chicago = 5-11
• Cleveland = 2-14
• Detroit = 1-15
• New Orleans = 16-0
• Pittsburgh = 11-5
• San Diego = 15-1
• St. Louis = 0-16
• Tampa Bay = 2-14

How they actually did was

• Arizona = 5 -11
• Carolina = 2 -14
• Chicago = 11-5
• Cleveland = 5 -11
• Detroit = 6 -10
• New Orleans = 11-5
• Pittsburgh = 12-4
• San Diego = 9 -7
• St. Louis = 7 -9
• Tampa Bay = 10-6

Only one of those was close. So much for the consensus picks…

How about the methods overall?

I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.

2010 Full Results

Team	Actual	ITPLS	MPWLS	Average
Arizona	5-11	12-4	12-4	12-4
Atlanta	13-3	9-7	8-8	9-7
Baltimore	12-4	8-8	14-2	11-5
Buffalo	4-12	3-13	4-12 *	4-12 *
Carolina	2-14	7-9	7-9	7-9
Chicago	11-5	5-11	5-11	5-11
Cincinnati	4-12	12-4	6-10	9-7
Cleveland	5-11	2-14	2-14	2-14
Dallas	6-10	11-5	13-3	12-4
Denver	4-12	7-9	8-8	8-8
Detroit	6-10	1-15	1-15	1-15
Green Bay	10-6	13-3	16-0	15-1
Houston	6-10	10-6	9-7	10-6
Indianapolis	10-6	16-0	13-3	15-1
Jacksonville	8-8	5-11	3-13	4-12
Kansas City	10-6	1-15	3-13	2-14
Miami	7-9	6-10	7-9 *	7-9 *
Minnesota	6-10	15-1	13-3	14-2
New England	14-2	12-4	14-2 *	13-3
New Orleans	11-5	16-0	16-0	16-0
New York Giants	10-6	8-8	7-9	8-8
New York Jets	11-5	10-6	11-5 *	11-5 *
Oakland	8-8	4-12	1-15	3-13
Pittsburgh	12-4	13-3	11-5	12-4 *
Philadelphia	10-6	11-5	11-5	11-5
San Diego	9-7	15-1	15-1	15-1
Seattle	7-9	8-8	10-6	9-7
St. Louis	7-9	4-12	5-11	5-11
Tampa Bay	10-6	0-16	0-16	0-16
San Francisco	6-10	2-14	2-14	2-14
Tennessee	6-10	7-9	5-11	6-10 *
Washington	6-10	3-13	4-12	4-12
Median Difference	0	4	3.5	4

* = correct guess

2011

Now that the 2011 schedule is out, I have setup the 2011 NFL predictions. This year I have a few more prediction methods, so I now have 5 sets of data (there are more available, but they require game stats updated from week to week and can’t be forecast). Here is my summary of the results:

2011 Summary

Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):

• Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
• Minnesota Vikings = 4-12
• New York Giants = 10-6

2011 Full Predictions

Team	ITP	DP	MPWLS	ITPLS	DPE	Average
Arizona	10-6	8-8	1-15	3-13	12-4	7-9
Atlanta	13-3	8-8	15-1	16-0	8-8	12-4
Baltimore	6-10	9-7	13-3	15-1	10-6	11-5
Buffalo	12-4	7-9	0-16	1-15	9-7	6-10
Carolina	6-10	8-8	0-16	0-16	1-15	3-13
Chicago	15-1	9-7	10-6	14-2	14-2	12-4
Cincinnati	3-13	1-15	4-12	1-15	2-14	2-14
Cleveland	12-4	7-9	5-11	2-14	10-6	7-9
Dallas	8-8	5-11	6-10	4-12	7-9	6-10
Denver	16-0	9-7	1-15	1-15	16-0	9-7
Detroit	0-16	3-13	6-10	4-12	4-12	3-13
Green Bay	8-8	6-10	16-0	10-6	6-10	9-7
Houston	15-1	5-11	6-10	4-12	7-9	7-9
Indianapolis	0-16	8-8	11-5	10-6	3-13	6-10
Jacksonville	12-4	6-10	2-14	7-9	10-6	7-9
Kansas City	11-5	11-5	8-8	11-5	9-7	10-6
Miami	6-10	9-7	5-11	7-9	2-14	6-10
Minnesota	4-12	10-6	4-12	4-12	5-11	5-11
New England	1-15	1-15	16-0	16-0	2-14	7-9
New Orleans	3-13	7-9	13-3	14-2	8-8	9-7
New York Giants	4-12	10-6	10-6	12-4	10-6	9-7
New York Jets	15-1	10-6	12-4	13-3	10-6	12-4
Oakland	2-14	9-7	8-8	8-8	11-5	8-8
Philadelphia	3-13	10-6	13-3	11-5	6-10	9-7
Pittsburgh	7-9	14-2	15-1	14-2	12-4	12-4
San Diego	9-7	10-6	14-2	9-7	4-12	9-7
San Francisco	16-0	5-11	8-8	5-11	10-6	9-7
Seattle	0-16	5-11	2-14	9-7	7-9	5-11
St. Louis	14-2	13-3	10-6	9-7	5-11	10-6
Tampa Bay	11-5	8-8	9-7	10-6	10-6	10-6
Tennessee	2-14	7-9	9-7	6-10	11-5	7-9
Washington	12-4	12-4	4-12	6-10	15-1	10-6

Of course, if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void.
Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void.

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