This is Alpha, the first-born, when he was 2YO.
This is Beta, the second-born, when he was about 2YO.
This is Gamma, the third-born, when he was about 18MO.
NFL in May 2011
May
5
2011
I know I said I wouldn’t have any more football posts for a while, but I forgot about the release of the 2011 NFL schedule. And between now and the start of the season, I may go back and analyze previous seasons to get more samples of prediction methods.
In the last week or two, we had the NFL draft and the announcement of the 2011 schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when (that is, if the NFL and players get their act together and resume football as we knew it), we can start predicting wins and losses.
I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. During the course of 2010, I saw that predictions based on the previous season’s results were just as good as predictions that updated themselves week-by-week. View results of previous football seasons.
2010 Summary
- Arizona = 12-4
- Carolina = 7-9
- Chicago = 5-11
- Cleveland = 2-14
- Detroit = 1-15
- New Orleans = 16-0
- Pittsburgh = 11-5
- San Diego = 15-1
- St. Louis = 0-16
- Tampa Bay = 2-14
How they actually did was
- Arizona = 5 -11
- Carolina = 2 -14
- Chicago = 11-5
- Cleveland = 5 -11
- Detroit = 6 -10
- New Orleans = 11-5
- Pittsburgh = 12-4
- San Diego = 9 -7
- St. Louis = 7 -9
- Tampa Bay = 10-6
Only one of those was close. So much for the consensus picks…
How about the methods overall?
I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.
2010 Full Results
| Team | Actual | ITPLS | MPWLS | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5-11 | 12-4 | 12-4 | 12-4 |
| Atlanta | 13-3 | 9-7 | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Baltimore | 12-4 | 8-8 | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Buffalo | 4-12 | 3-13 | 4-12 * | 4-12 * |
| Carolina | 2-14 | 7-9 | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Chicago | 11-5 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Cincinnati | 4-12 | 12-4 | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Cleveland | 5-11 | 2-14 | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| Dallas | 6-10 | 11-5 | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Denver | 4-12 | 7-9 | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Detroit | 6-10 | 1-15 | 1-15 | 1-15 |
| Green Bay | 10-6 | 13-3 | 16-0 | 15-1 |
| Houston | 6-10 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Indianapolis | 10-6 | 16-0 | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Jacksonville | 8-8 | 5-11 | 3-13 | 4-12 |
| Kansas City | 10-6 | 1-15 | 3-13 | 2-14 |
| Miami | 7-9 | 6-10 | 7-9 * | 7-9 * |
| Minnesota | 6-10 | 15-1 | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| New England | 14-2 | 12-4 | 14-2 * | 13-3 |
| New Orleans | 11-5 | 16-0 | 16-0 | 16-0 |
| New York Giants | 10-6 | 8-8 | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| New York Jets | 11-5 | 10-6 | 11-5 * | 11-5 * |
| Oakland | 8-8 | 4-12 | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 13-3 | 11-5 | 12-4 * |
| Philadelphia | 10-6 | 11-5 | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 15-1 | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 8-8 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| St. Louis | 7-9 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Tampa Bay | 10-6 | 0-16 | 0-16 | 0-16 |
| San Francisco | 6-10 | 2-14 | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| Tennessee | 6-10 | 7-9 | 5-11 | 6-10 * |
| Washington | 6-10 | 3-13 | 4-12 | 4-12 |
| Median Difference | 0 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 |
* = correct guess
2011
Now that the 2011 schedule is out, I have setup the 2011 NFL predictions. This year I have a few more prediction methods, so I now have 5 sets of data (there are more available, but they require game stats updated from week to week and can’t be forecast). Here is my summary of the results:
2011 Summary
Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):
- Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
- Minnesota Vikings = 4-12
- New York Giants = 10-6
2011 Full Predictions
| Team | ITP | DP | MPWLS | ITPLS | DPE | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 10-6 | 8-8 | 1-15 | 3-13 | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Atlanta | 13-3 | 8-8 | 15-1 | 16-0 | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Baltimore | 6-10 | 9-7 | 13-3 | 15-1 | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| Buffalo | 12-4 | 7-9 | 0-16 | 1-15 | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Carolina | 6-10 | 8-8 | 0-16 | 0-16 | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Chicago | 15-1 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 14-2 | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Cincinnati | 3-13 | 1-15 | 4-12 | 1-15 | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| Cleveland | 12-4 | 7-9 | 5-11 | 2-14 | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Dallas | 8-8 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Denver | 16-0 | 9-7 | 1-15 | 1-15 | 16-0 | 9-7 |
| Detroit | 0-16 | 3-13 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 3-13 |
| Green Bay | 8-8 | 6-10 | 16-0 | 10-6 | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Houston | 15-1 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Indianapolis | 0-16 | 8-8 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Jacksonville | 12-4 | 6-10 | 2-14 | 7-9 | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Kansas City | 11-5 | 11-5 | 8-8 | 11-5 | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Miami | 6-10 | 9-7 | 5-11 | 7-9 | 2-14 | 6-10 |
| Minnesota | 4-12 | 10-6 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| New England | 1-15 | 1-15 | 16-0 | 16-0 | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| New Orleans | 3-13 | 7-9 | 13-3 | 14-2 | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| New York Giants | 4-12 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 12-4 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| New York Jets | 15-1 | 10-6 | 12-4 | 13-3 | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Oakland | 2-14 | 9-7 | 8-8 | 8-8 | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Philadelphia | 3-13 | 10-6 | 13-3 | 11-5 | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Pittsburgh | 7-9 | 14-2 | 15-1 | 14-2 | 12-4 | 12-4 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 10-6 | 14-2 | 9-7 | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| San Francisco | 16-0 | 5-11 | 8-8 | 5-11 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Seattle | 0-16 | 5-11 | 2-14 | 9-7 | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| St. Louis | 14-2 | 13-3 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Tampa Bay | 11-5 | 8-8 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Tennessee | 2-14 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 6-10 | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Washington | 12-4 | 12-4 | 4-12 | 6-10 | 15-1 | 10-6 |
Of course, if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void.
Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void.
Not even in this respect was their testimony consistent.
Mark 14:59
This little article thingy was written by Some Guy sometime around 6:55 am and has been carefully placed in the Sports category.
April 24th, 2012 at 6:18 pm
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