This is Alpha, the first-born, when he was 2YO.
This is Beta, the second-born, when he was about 2YO.
This is Gamma, the third-born, when he was about 18MO.
NFL in April 2012
Apr
24
2012
In the last week or two, we had the announcement of the 2012 NFL schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses.
I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.
2011 Summary
- Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
- Minnesota Vikings = 4-12
- New York Giants = 10-6
How they actually did was
- Kansas City Chiefs = 7-9
- Minnesota Vikings = 3-13
- New York Giants = 9-7
Two of those were close. Not too bad…
How about the methods overall?
I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.
2011 Full Results
| Team | Actual | ITP | DP | MPWLS | ITPLS | DPE | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8-8 | 10-6 | 8-8 * | 1-15 | 3-13 | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Atlanta | 10-6 | 13-3 | 8-8 | 15-1 | 16-0 | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Baltimore | 12-4 | 6-10 | 9-7 | 13-3 | 15-1 | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| Buffalo | 6-10 | 12-4 | 7-9 | 0-16 | 1-15 | 9-7 | 6-10 * |
| Carolina | 6-10 | 6-10 * | 8-8 | 0-16 | 0-16 | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 15-1 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 14-2 | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Cincinnati | 9-7 | 3-13 | 1-15 | 4-12 | 1-15 | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| Cleveland | 4-12 | 12-4 | 7-9 | 5-11 | 2-14 | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Dallas | 8-8 | 8-8 * | 5-11 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Denver | 8-8 | 16-0 | 9-7 | 1-15 | 1-15 | 16-0 | 9-7 |
| Detroit | 10-6 | 0-16 | 3-13 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 3-13 |
| Green Bay | 15-1 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 16-0 | 10-6 | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Houston | 10-6 | 15-1 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Indianapolis | 2-14 | 0-16 | 8-8 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Jacksonville | 5-11 | 12-4 | 6-10 | 2-14 | 7-9 | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Kansas City | 7-9 | 11-5 | 11-5 | 8-8 | 11-5 | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Miami | 6-10 | 6-10 * | 9-7 | 5-11 | 7-9 | 2-14 | 6-10 * |
| Minnesota | 3-13 | 4-12 | 10-6 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| New England | 13-3 | 1-15 | 1-15 | 16-0 | 16-0 | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| New Orleans | 13-3 | 3-13 | 7-9 | 13-3 * | 14-2 | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| New York Giants | 9-7 | 4-12 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 12-4 | 10-6 | 9-7 * |
| New York Jets | 8-8 | 15-1 | 10-6 | 12-4 | 13-3 | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Oakland | 8-8 | 2-14 | 9-7 | 8-8 * | 8-8 * | 11-5 | 8-8 * |
| Philadelphia | 8-8 | 3-13 | 10-6 | 13-3 | 11-5 | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 7-9 | 14-2 | 15-1 | 14-2 | 12-4 * | 12-4 * |
| San Diego | 8-8 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 14-2 | 9-7 | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| San Francisco | 13-3 | 16-0 | 5-11 | 8-8 | 5-11 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 0-16 | 5-11 | 2-14 | 9-7 | 7-9 * | 5-11 |
| St. Louis | 2-14 | 14-2 | 13-3 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 11-5 | 8-8 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Tennessee | 9-7 | 2-14 | 7-9 | 9-7 * | 6-10 | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Washington | 5-11 | 12-4 | 12-4 | 4-12 | 6-10 | 15-1 | 10-6 |
* = correct guess
2012
Now that the 2012 schedule is out, I have setup the 2012 NFL predictions. Here is my summary of the results:
2012 Summary
Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):
- Buffalo Bills = 5-11
Small list this year – not much consensus.
2012 Full Predictions
| Team | ITP | DP | MPWLS | ITPLS | DPE | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 13-3 | 8-8 | 4-12 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Atlanta | 4-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 13-3 | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Baltimore | 16-0 | 7-9 | 15-1 | 14-2 | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Buffalo | 6-10 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Carolina | 1-15 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 3-13 | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Chicago | 10-6 | 8-8 | 9-7 | 7-9 | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Cincinnati | 2-14 | 9-7 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Cleveland | 11-5 | 3-13 | 2-14 | 1-15 | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Dallas | 0-16 | 3-13 | 10-6 | 8-8 | 0-16 | 4-12 |
| Denver | 15-1 | 12-4 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Detroit | 7-9 | 5-11 | 12-4 | 13-3 | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Green Bay | 13-3 | 6-10 | 15-1 | 16-0 | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Houston | 5-11 | 7-9 | 13-3 | 12-4 | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Indianapolis | 7-9 | 11-5 | 0-16 | 2-14 | 2-14 | 4-12 |
| Jacksonville | 2-14 | 8-8 | 3-13 | 3-13 | 5-11 | 4-12 |
| Kansas City | 7-9 | 9-7 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Miami | 4-12 | 7-9 | 11-5 | 4-12 | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Minnesota | 16-0 | 9-7 | 3-13 | 2-14 | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| New England | 1-15 | 7-9 | 16-0 | 16-0 | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| New Orleans | 10-6 | 6-10 | 16-0 | 15-1 | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| New York Giants | 15-1 | 12-4 | 5-11 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| New York Jets | 16-0 | 9-7 | 8-8 | 10-6 | 16-0 | 12-4 |
| Oakland | 13-3 | 10-6 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| Philadelphia | 4-12 | 6-10 | 12-4 | 6-10 | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Pittsburgh | 7-9 | 10-6 | 14-2 | 15-1 | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| San Diego | 3-13 | 7-9 | 12-4 | 7-9 | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| San Francisco | 0-16 | 3-13 | 13-3 | 13-3 | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Seattle | 9-7 | 11-5 | 7-9 | 6-10 | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| St. Louis | 7-9 | 12-4 | 0-16 | 0-16 | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Tampa Bay | 12-4 | 10-6 | 1-15 | 2-14 | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Tennessee | 13-3 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Washington | 7-9 | 12-4 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 6-10 |
The most realistic method is the David Postulate, since it does not predict any 0-16 or 16-0 teams. The most unrealistic, going by those same measures, is Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate, since it has 3 teams going undefeated and 2 going winless.
Of course, if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void.
Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void.
And who knows what will happen with Indianapolis with their new quarterback? And Denver with their new quarterback? And the Jets with Tebow? No guarantees for my predictions of those teams, either.
Or do you not know that the saints will judge the world? If the world is judged by you, are you not competent to constitute the smallest law courts?
1 Corinthians 6:2
This little article thingy was written by Some Guy sometime around 6:16 pm and has been carefully placed in the Sports category.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
You should add the Saints to the list of no guarantees, what with their suspended coach and other disciplinary issues. That team is a mess.
April 25th, 2013 at 6:37 am
[…] Last year, I predicted that […]