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In the last week or two, we had the announcement of the 2012 NFL schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.

2011 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

• Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
• Minnesota Vikings = 4-12
• New York Giants = 10-6

How they actually did was

• Kansas City Chiefs = 7-9
• Minnesota Vikings = 3-13
• New York Giants = 9-7

Two of those were close. Not too bad…

How about the methods overall?

I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.

2011 Full Results

Team	Actual	ITP	DP	MPWLS	ITPLS	DPE	Average
Arizona	8-8	10-6	8-8 *	1-15	3-13	12-4	7-9
Atlanta	10-6	13-3	8-8	15-1	16-0	8-8	12-4
Baltimore	12-4	6-10	9-7	13-3	15-1	10-6	11-5
Buffalo	6-10	12-4	7-9	0-16	1-15	9-7	6-10 *
Carolina	6-10	6-10 *	8-8	0-16	0-16	1-15	3-13
Chicago	8-8	15-1	9-7	10-6	14-2	14-2	12-4
Cincinnati	9-7	3-13	1-15	4-12	1-15	2-14	2-14
Cleveland	4-12	12-4	7-9	5-11	2-14	10-6	7-9
Dallas	8-8	8-8 *	5-11	6-10	4-12	7-9	6-10
Denver	8-8	16-0	9-7	1-15	1-15	16-0	9-7
Detroit	10-6	0-16	3-13	6-10	4-12	4-12	3-13
Green Bay	15-1	8-8	6-10	16-0	10-6	6-10	9-7
Houston	10-6	15-1	5-11	6-10	4-12	7-9	7-9
Indianapolis	2-14	0-16	8-8	11-5	10-6	3-13	6-10
Jacksonville	5-11	12-4	6-10	2-14	7-9	10-6	7-9
Kansas City	7-9	11-5	11-5	8-8	11-5	9-7	10-6
Miami	6-10	6-10 *	9-7	5-11	7-9	2-14	6-10 *
Minnesota	3-13	4-12	10-6	4-12	4-12	5-11	5-11
New England	13-3	1-15	1-15	16-0	16-0	2-14	7-9
New Orleans	13-3	3-13	7-9	13-3 *	14-2	8-8	9-7
New York Giants	9-7	4-12	10-6	10-6	12-4	10-6	9-7 *
New York Jets	8-8	15-1	10-6	12-4	13-3	10-6	12-4
Oakland	8-8	2-14	9-7	8-8 *	8-8 *	11-5	8-8 *
Philadelphia	8-8	3-13	10-6	13-3	11-5	6-10	9-7
Pittsburgh	12-4	7-9	14-2	15-1	14-2	12-4 *	12-4 *
San Diego	8-8	9-7	10-6	14-2	9-7	4-12	9-7
San Francisco	13-3	16-0	5-11	8-8	5-11	10-6	9-7
Seattle	7-9	0-16	5-11	2-14	9-7	7-9 *	5-11
St. Louis	2-14	14-2	13-3	10-6	9-7	5-11	10-6
Tampa Bay	4-12	11-5	8-8	9-7	10-6	10-6	10-6
Tennessee	9-7	2-14	7-9	9-7 *	6-10	11-5	7-9
Washington	5-11	12-4	12-4	4-12	6-10	15-1	10-6

* = correct guess

2012

Now that the 2012 schedule is out, I have setup the 2012 NFL predictions. Here is my summary of the results:

2012 Summary

Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):

• Buffalo Bills = 5-11

Small list this year – not much consensus.

2012 Full Predictions

Team	ITP	DP	MPWLS	ITPLS	DPE	Average
Arizona	13-3	8-8	4-12	9-7	10-6	9-7
Atlanta	4-12	9-7	12-4	13-3	7-9	9-7
Baltimore	16-0	7-9	15-1	14-2	13-3	13-3
Buffalo	6-10	5-11	5-11	5-11	7-9	6-10
Carolina	1-15	2-14	6-10	3-13	10-6	4-12
Chicago	10-6	8-8	9-7	7-9	2-14	7-9
Cincinnati	2-14	9-7	9-7	12-4	6-10	8-8
Cleveland	11-5	3-13	2-14	1-15	10-6	5-11
Dallas	0-16	3-13	10-6	8-8	0-16	4-12
Denver	15-1	12-4	4-12	7-9	10-6	10-6
Detroit	7-9	5-11	12-4	13-3	8-8	9-7
Green Bay	13-3	6-10	15-1	16-0	16-0	13-3
Houston	5-11	7-9	13-3	12-4	11-5	10-6
Indianapolis	7-9	11-5	0-16	2-14	2-14	4-12
Jacksonville	2-14	8-8	3-13	3-13	5-11	4-12
Kansas City	7-9	9-7	2-14	6-10	5-11	6-10
Miami	4-12	7-9	11-5	4-12	8-8	7-9
Minnesota	16-0	9-7	3-13	2-14	13-3	9-7
New England	1-15	7-9	16-0	16-0	3-13	9-7
New Orleans	10-6	6-10	16-0	15-1	14-2	12-4
New York Giants	15-1	12-4	5-11	9-7	10-6	10-6
New York Jets	16-0	9-7	8-8	10-6	16-0	12-4
Oakland	13-3	10-6	7-9	9-7	4-12	9-7
Philadelphia	4-12	6-10	12-4	6-10	8-8	7-9
Pittsburgh	7-9	10-6	14-2	15-1	6-10	10-6
San Diego	3-13	7-9	12-4	7-9	11-5	8-8
San Francisco	0-16	3-13	13-3	13-3	6-10	7-9
Seattle	9-7	11-5	7-9	6-10	7-9	8-8
St. Louis	7-9	12-4	0-16	0-16	7-9	5-11
Tampa Bay	12-4	10-6	1-15	2-14	3-13	6-10
Tennessee	13-3	8-8	6-10	10-6	10-6	9-7
Washington	7-9	12-4	4-12	4-12	5-11	6-10

The most realistic method is the David Postulate, since it does not predict any 0-16 or 16-0 teams. The most unrealistic, going by those same measures, is Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate, since it has 3 teams going undefeated and 2 going winless.

Of course, if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void.
Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void.

And who knows what will happen with Indianapolis with their new quarterback? And Denver with their new quarterback? And the Jets with Tebow? No guarantees for my predictions of those teams, either.

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