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Today’s post will cover both the draft and the schedule but I didn’t want to put both those in the title. So I have a rather bland title.

The Draft

I didn’t pay too much attention to the draft, other than the fact that Tim Tebow was drafted in the first round. He wasn’t expected to be picked until the later rounds, but Coach McDaniels of the Broncos wanted him on the team.

McDaniels already has Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn, both of whom want to be the starting quarterback. Quinn was just brought in, so either McDaniels is trying to put some handwriting on the wall for Orton or he has other plans for Tebow.

I say he has other plans. Do you think it is just coincidence that the Broncos got rid of their tight end just days before drafting Tebow? I sense some trick plays up someone’s sleeves. Am I the only one who thinks McDaniels is going to put Tebow out at tight end? Apparently not.

I do think that Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen made the right choice in not attending the NFL draft in person. Unless you’re being discussed as one of the top three picks, you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. If you’re not picked right away, the cameras will be on you the whole time and people will be wondering why you have not been picked yet.

Tim Tebow also was invited but did not attend the NFL draft in New York. The correctness of his choice is not as obvious as the other quarterbacks’. Since Tebow was not slotted to be picked until the third round or so, there should have been no pressure. He could have gone, enjoyed the festivities, and not worried about not going in the first round. Then he would have been pleasantly surprised when he did go in the first round. Ah well, he certainly didn’t make the wrong choice. I’m not sure there even was a wrong choice in his case.

The Schedule

Shortly before the draft started, the NFL announced the 2010 schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. During the course of 2009, I saw that predictions based on the previous season’s results were just as good as predictions that updated themselves week-by-week. Results are here.

Now that the schedule is out, I have setup the 2010 predictions. Most of them are good for the first week only, but the two methods with “last year” in them are good for the whole season already. Here is my summary of the results:

• Of course, the generic prediction of Home Team Wins always forecasts each team to win half the games and lose half the games. So everyone gets an 8-8 record. Boring.
• The Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate (better record wins) was 63% accurate last season (in 2009, using 2008’s final numbers the whole season). It predicts this for 2010:
  • Arizona = 12-4
  • Atlanta = 9-7
  • Baltimore = 8-8
  • Buffalo = 3-13
  • Carolina = 7-9
  • Chicago = 5-11
  • Cincinnati = 12-4
  • Cleveland = 2-14
  • Dallas = 11-5
  • Denver = 7-9
  • Detroit = 1-15
  • Green Bay = 13-3
  • Houston = 10-6
  • Indianapolis = 16-0
  • Jacksonville = 5-11
  • Kansas City = 1-15
  • Miami = 6-10
  • Minnesota = 15-1
  • New England = 12-4
  • New Orleans = 16-0
  • New York Giants = 8-8
  • New York Jets = 10-6
  • Oakland = 4-12
  • Philadelphia = 13-3
  • Pittsburgh = 11-5
  • San Diego = 15-1
  • San Francisco = 8-8
  • Seattle = 4-12
  • St. Louis = 0-16
  • Tampa Bay = 2-14
  • Tennessee = 7-9
  • Washington = 3-13
• The More Points Wins method was 66% accurate last season (in 2009, using 2008’s final numbers the whole season). It predicts this for 2010:
  • Arizona = 12-4
  • Atlanta = 8-8
  • Baltimore = 14-2
  • Buffalo = 4-12
  • Carolina = 7-9
  • Chicago = 5-11
  • Cincinnati = 6-10
  • Cleveland = 2-14
  • Dallas = 13-3
  • Denver = 8-8
  • Detroit = 1-15
  • Green Bay = 16-0
  • Houston = 9-7
  • Indianapolis = 13-3
  • Jacksonville = 3-13
  • Kansas City = 3-13
  • Miami = 7-9
  • Minnesota = 13-3
  • New England = 14-2
  • New Orleans = 16-0
  • New York Giants = 7-9
  • New York Jets = 11-5
  • Oakland = 1-15
  • Philadelphia = 11-5
  • Pittsburgh = 11-5
  • San Diego = 15-1
  • San Francisco = 10-6
  • Seattle = 5-11
  • St. Louis = 0-16
  • Tampa Bay = 2-14
  • Tennessee = 5-11
  • Washington = 4-12
• Comparing ITP and MPW gets me this:
  Consensus:
  • Arizona = 12-4
  • Carolina = 7-9
  • Chicago = 5-11
  • Cleveland = 2-14
  • Detroit = 1-15
  • New Orleans = 16-0
  • Pittsburgh = 11-5
  • San Diego = 15-1
  • St. Louis = 0-16
  • Tampa Bay = 2-14

  Dissension:

  • Baltimore = 14-2 or 8-8
  • Cincinnati = 12-4 or 6-10