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This should be the last post about football prediction schemes for a while. Or even longer if the lockout continues.

I have, until now, just tested the NFL forecasting formula against the regular season – seeing how well each predicts that week’s game results.

But the regular season is just to see who makes the playoffs, then who will win the division, win the conference, and then win the Super Bowl. Today’s update is to see if those methods could predict – using the results of the regular season – who will be playoff champions.

I tested the equations against the top four teams (i.e. who played for the conference championship) as well as the Super Bowl winner. I have no reason for going that route, other than it was around the time of the college basketball tournament, so the term “Final Four” was popular.

To spare you the details, let me just say that it was worthless. The prediction methods didn’t really get you any closer to knowing who would make it to the end of the playoffs.

The good news is that I don’t have to plan a trip to Vegas any time soon.

You can view the details over at the football predictions page.

The end result is that your best bet is to pick the teams that have a first round bye. Then you have a 54.2% chance of picking who get to the conference championship.