This is Alpha, the first-born, when he was 2YO.
This is Beta, the second-born, when he was about 2YO.
This is Gamma, the third-born, when he was about 18MO.
Football Consensus
Sep
25
2012
Some people were disappointed that my site’s consensus pick for week 2 of the 2012 NFL season was incorrect. After pondering what happened, I am not going to blame the officiating. Rather, I will just have my disclaimer ready.
Warning: consensus picks are no more than 85% accurate.
I went through the whole 2011 season and tallied how many consensus picks there were and how many times it was correct. (One of the many uses for spreadsheets…) I did that for when all 8 forecasting methods agreed, as well as 7 of 8, 6 of 8, and 5 of 8.
Here are the results:
| Week | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 50% | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| 2 | 2 / 2 | 2 / 4 | 5 / 6 | 0 / 2 | 100% | 50% | 83% | 0% |
| 3 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 | 100% | 67% | 80% | 80% |
| 4 | 3 / 3 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 1 | 0 / 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| 5 | 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 3 | 50% | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| 6 | 2 / 3 | 4 / 5 | 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 | 67% | 80% | 100% | 0% |
| 7 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 33% |
| 8 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 4 | 2 / 2 | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% |
| 9 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 | 50% | 60% | 67% | 0% |
| 10 | 1 / 1 | 0 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 5 / 8 | 100% | 0% | 50% | 63% |
| 11 | 5 / 5 | 1 / 1 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 25% |
| 12 | 3 / 3 | 2 / 2 | 2 / 4 | 3 / 5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 60% |
| 13 | 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 | 4 / 6 | 3 / 3 | 75% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 14 | 6 / 6 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 33% |
| 15 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 2 / 6 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 33% |
| 16 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 4 / 4 | 1 / 2 | 100% | 33% | 100% | 50% |
| 17 | 4 / 4 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 | 3 / 5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| Total | 41/ 48 | 31 / 45 | 39 / 53 | 30 / 58 | 85% | 69% | 74% | 52% |
So, if all 8 picks agree, they have an 85% chance of being right. Since they were wrong in week 2, they should be correct for the next several picks.
For by wise guidance you will wage war, And in abundance of counselors there is victory.
Proverbs 24:6
This little article thingy was written by Some Guy sometime around 6:19 pm and has been carefully placed in the Sports category.
September 26th, 2012 at 12:26 am
I need a way to pick based on spreads.