NFL in April, 2020 •• Some Blog Site

NFL in April, 2020

Sep

2020

A few months ago, we had the announcement of the 2020 NFL schedule, but I forgot because I was distracted by world events. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses, just before the season starts.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.

2019 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

Atlanta Falcons = 5-11
Cleveland Browns = 8-8
Denver Broncos = 3-13
Jacksonville Jaguars = 16-0
Philadelphia Eagles = 11-5

How they actually did was

Atlanta Falcons = 7-9
Cleveland Browns = 6-10
Denver Broncos = 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars = 6-10
Philadelphia Eagles = 9-7

Well, I got all the digits correct for the Jaguars, just not in the right order. For the other teams, I at least got winning season or not winning season right, for what that’s worth.

How about the methods overall?

I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.

2019 Full Results

Team	ITP	DP	MPWLS	ITPLS	DPE	Average
Arizona	16 – 0	14 – 2	2 – 14	0 – 16	15 – 1	9 – 7
Atlanta	0 – 16	6 – 10	11 – 5	5 – 11	5 – 11	5 – 11
Baltimore	0 – 16	6 – 10	13 – 3	11 – 5	5 – 11	7 – 9
Buffalo	4 – 12	8 – 8	8 – 8	5 – 11	6 – 10	6 – 10
Carolina	15 – 1	10 – 6	11 – 5	7 – 9	14 – 2	11 – 5
Chicago	16 – 0	15 – 1	5 – 11	14 – 2	7 – 9	11 – 5
Cincinnati	9 – 7	11 – 5	6 – 10	4 – 12	12 – 4	8 – 8
Cleveland	12 – 4	8 – 8	0 – 16	8 – 8	8 – 8	7 – 9
Dallas	15 – 1	14 – 2	9 – 7	12 – 4	14 – 2	13 – 3
Denver	0 – 16	6 – 10	3 – 13	3 – 13	4 – 12	3 – 13
Detroit	4 – 12	3 – 13+	11 – 5	4 – 12	12 – 4	7 – 9
Green Bay	3 – 13	2 – 14	3 – 13	6 – 10	6 – 10	4 – 12
Houston	3 – 13	7 – 9	2 – 14	12 – 4	8 – 8	6 – 10
Indianapolis	10 – 6	4 – 12	0 – 16	11 – 5	9 – 7	7 – 9*
Jacksonville	16 – 0	10 – 6	16 – 0	3 – 13	16 – 0	12 – 4
Kansas City	11 – 5	11 – 5	10 – 6	14 – 2	13 – 3	12 – 4*
Los Angeles Chargers	13 – 3	8 – 8	10 – 6	15 – 1	14 – 2	12 – 4
Los Angeles Rams	1 – 15	4 – 12	16 – 0	16 – 0	8 – 8	9 – 7*
Miami	15 – 1	10 – 6	3 – 13	7 – 9	14 – 2	10 – 6
Minnesota	9 – 7	10 – 6*	15 – 1	9 – 7	7 – 9	10 – 6*
New England	8 – 8	3 – 13	15 – 1	14 – 2	8 – 8	10 – 6
New Orleans	3 – 13	7 – 9	15 – 1	16 – 0	4 – 12	9 – 7
New York Giants	3 – 13	2 – 14	1 – 15	4 – 12*	1 – 15	2 – 14
New York Jets	8 – 8	10 – 6	4 – 12	1 – 15	7 – 9*	6 – 10
Oakland	10 – 6	4 – 12	5 – 11	0 – 16	4 – 12	5 – 11
Philadelphia	12 – 4	6 – 10	16 – 0	11 – 5	11 – 5	11 – 5
Pittsburgh	2 – 14	10 – 6	15 – 1	9 – 7	1 – 15	7 – 9
San Francisco	6 – 10	2 – 14	5 – 11	2 – 14	3 – 13	4 – 12
Seattle	10 – 6	8 – 8	7 – 9	13 – 3	8 – 8	9 – 7
Tampa Bay	8 – 8	6 – 10	5 – 11	3 – 13	4 – 12	5 – 11
Tennessee	8 – 8	7 – 9	9 – 7*	9 – 7*	6 – 10	8 – 8
Washington	0 – 16	9 – 7	8 – 8	7 – 9	0 – 16	5 – 11

* = correct guess
+ = if you count a tie in the loss column

IPT: 0
DP: 2
MPWLS: 1
IPTLS: 2
DPE: 1
AVG: 3

This was a step down from last year. On the other hand it continues to provide a good example of the wisdom of crowds (hint: it depends on independent conclusions) because the average guess got the most right.

2020

Now that the 2020 schedule is out, I have setup the 2020 NFL predictions. Here is my summary of the results:

2020 Summary

Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):

Buffalo Bills = 11-5
Los Angeles Rams = 10-6
Minnesota Vikings = 11-5
San Francisco 49ers = 13-3
Seattle Seahawks = 7-9

Looks fairly reasonable, actually.

2020 Full Predictions

Team	ITP	DP	MPWLS	ITPLS	DPE	Average
Arizona	1 – 15	3 – 13	6 – 10	5 – 11	2 – 14	3 – 13
Atlanta	10 – 6	12 – 4	6 – 10	7 – 9	8 – 8	9 – 7
Baltimore	11 – 5	8 – 8	16 – 0	16 – 0	9 – 7	12 – 4
Buffalo	16 – 0	11 – 5	11 – 5	11 – 5	14 – 2	13 – 3
Carolina	13 – 3	14 – 2	1 – 15	2 – 14	13 – 3	9 – 7
Chicago	0 – 16	1 – 15	5 – 11	8 – 8	4 – 12	4 – 12
Cincinnati	16 – 0	9 – 7	2 – 14	0 – 16	13 – 3	8 – 8
Cleveland	6 – 10	2 – 14	7 – 9	4 – 12	4 – 12	5 – 11
Dallas	4 – 12	3 – 13	14 – 2	9 – 7	5 – 11	7 – 9
Denver	14 – 2	12 – 4	5 – 11	6 – 10	8 – 8	9 – 7
Detroit	13 – 3	9 – 7	3 – 13	1 – 15	4 – 12	6 – 10
Green Bay	4 – 12	4 – 12	11 – 5	14 – 2	6 – 10	8 – 8
Houston	3 – 13	8 – 8	9 – 7	12 – 4	2 – 14	7 – 9
Indianapolis	10 – 6	4 – 12	9 – 7	6 – 10	11 – 5	8 – 8
Jacksonville	12 – 4	7 – 9	2 – 14	5 – 11	15 – 1	8 – 8
Kansas City	8 – 8	4 – 12	14 – 2	14 – 2	9 – 7	10 – 6
Los Angeles Chargers	2 – 14	0 – 16	10 – 6	2 – 14	5 – 11	4 – 12
Los Angeles Rams	10 – 6	10 – 6	10 – 6	9 – 7	11 – 5	10 – 6
Miami	5 – 11	7 – 9	0 – 16	2 – 14	6 – 10	4 – 12
Minnesota	16 – 0	11 – 5	14 – 2	11 – 5	11 – 5	13 – 3
New England	14 – 2	13 – 3	15 – 1	13 – 3	5 – 11	12 – 4
New Orleans	10 – 6	8 – 8	14 – 2	16 – 0	6 – 10	11 – 5
New York Giants	15 – 1	7 – 9	3 – 13	3 – 13	16 – 0	9 – 7
New York Jets	3 – 13	8 – 8	3 – 13	7 – 9	8 – 8	6 – 10
Oakland	0 – 16	9 – 7	2 – 14	8 – 8	10 – 6	6 – 10
Philadelphia	0 – 16	8 – 8	10 – 6	11 – 5	5 – 11	7 – 9
Pittsburgh	5 – 11	9 – 7	8 – 8	9 – 7	5 – 11	7 – 9
San Francisco	13 – 3	13 – 3	15 – 1	15 – 1	13 – 3	14 – 2
Seattle	6 – 10	7 – 9	7 – 9	13 – 3	3 – 13	7 – 9
Tampa Bay	4 – 12	8 – 8	10 – 6	6 – 10	8 – 8	7 – 9
Tennessee	2 – 14	8 – 8	14 – 2	10 – 6	4 – 12	8 – 8
Washington	10 – 6	11 – 5	0 – 16	1 – 15	13 – 3	7 – 9

I’m still not used to having teams in LA. And I haven’t the time right now to relocate the Raiders in my formulae, so just switch Oakland and Las Vegas in your head.

Enjoy the predictions, but there are caveats: if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void. Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void. Same thing with new coaches.

There is no remembrance of earlier things; And also of the later things which will occur, There will be for them no remembrance Among those who will come later still.

Ecclesiastes 1:11