NFL in April, 2020
Sep
8
2020
A few months ago, we had the announcement of the 2020 NFL schedule, but I forgot because I was distracted by world events. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses, just before the season starts.
I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.
2019 Summary
- Atlanta Falcons = 5-11
- Cleveland Browns = 8-8
- Denver Broncos = 3-13
- Jacksonville Jaguars = 16-0
- Philadelphia Eagles = 11-5
How they actually did was
- Atlanta Falcons = 7-9
- Cleveland Browns = 6-10
- Denver Broncos = 7-9
- Jacksonville Jaguars = 6-10
- Philadelphia Eagles = 9-7
Well, I got all the digits correct for the Jaguars, just not in the right order. For the other teams, I at least got winning season or not winning season right, for what that’s worth.
How about the methods overall?
I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.
2019 Full Results
Team | ITP | DP | MPWLS | ITPLS | DPE | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 16 – 0 | 14 – 2 | 2 – 14 | 0 – 16 | 15 – 1 | 9 – 7 |
Atlanta | 0 – 16 | 6 – 10 | 11 – 5 | 5 – 11 | 5 – 11 | 5 – 11 |
Baltimore | 0 – 16 | 6 – 10 | 13 – 3 | 11 – 5 | 5 – 11 | 7 – 9 |
Buffalo | 4 – 12 | 8 – 8 | 8 – 8 | 5 – 11 | 6 – 10 | 6 – 10 |
Carolina | 15 – 1 | 10 – 6 | 11 – 5 | 7 – 9 | 14 – 2 | 11 – 5 |
Chicago | 16 – 0 | 15 – 1 | 5 – 11 | 14 – 2 | 7 – 9 | 11 – 5 |
Cincinnati | 9 – 7 | 11 – 5 | 6 – 10 | 4 – 12 | 12 – 4 | 8 – 8 |
Cleveland | 12 – 4 | 8 – 8 | 0 – 16 | 8 – 8 | 8 – 8 | 7 – 9 |
Dallas | 15 – 1 | 14 – 2 | 9 – 7 | 12 – 4 | 14 – 2 | 13 – 3 |
Denver | 0 – 16 | 6 – 10 | 3 – 13 | 3 – 13 | 4 – 12 | 3 – 13 |
Detroit | 4 – 12 | 3 – 13+ | 11 – 5 | 4 – 12 | 12 – 4 | 7 – 9 |
Green Bay | 3 – 13 | 2 – 14 | 3 – 13 | 6 – 10 | 6 – 10 | 4 – 12 |
Houston | 3 – 13 | 7 – 9 | 2 – 14 | 12 – 4 | 8 – 8 | 6 – 10 |
Indianapolis | 10 – 6 | 4 – 12 | 0 – 16 | 11 – 5 | 9 – 7 | 7 – 9* |
Jacksonville | 16 – 0 | 10 – 6 | 16 – 0 | 3 – 13 | 16 – 0 | 12 – 4 |
Kansas City | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 | 10 – 6 | 14 – 2 | 13 – 3 | 12 – 4* |
Los Angeles Chargers | 13 – 3 | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 | 15 – 1 | 14 – 2 | 12 – 4 |
Los Angeles Rams | 1 – 15 | 4 – 12 | 16 – 0 | 16 – 0 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7* |
Miami | 15 – 1 | 10 – 6 | 3 – 13 | 7 – 9 | 14 – 2 | 10 – 6 |
Minnesota | 9 – 7 | 10 – 6* | 15 – 1 | 9 – 7 | 7 – 9 | 10 – 6* |
New England | 8 – 8 | 3 – 13 | 15 – 1 | 14 – 2 | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 |
New Orleans | 3 – 13 | 7 – 9 | 15 – 1 | 16 – 0 | 4 – 12 | 9 – 7 |
New York Giants | 3 – 13 | 2 – 14 | 1 – 15 | 4 – 12* | 1 – 15 | 2 – 14 |
New York Jets | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 | 4 – 12 | 1 – 15 | 7 – 9* | 6 – 10 |
Oakland | 10 – 6 | 4 – 12 | 5 – 11 | 0 – 16 | 4 – 12 | 5 – 11 |
Philadelphia | 12 – 4 | 6 – 10 | 16 – 0 | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 |
Pittsburgh | 2 – 14 | 10 – 6 | 15 – 1 | 9 – 7 | 1 – 15 | 7 – 9 |
San Francisco | 6 – 10 | 2 – 14 | 5 – 11 | 2 – 14 | 3 – 13 | 4 – 12 |
Seattle | 10 – 6 | 8 – 8 | 7 – 9 | 13 – 3 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7 |
Tampa Bay | 8 – 8 | 6 – 10 | 5 – 11 | 3 – 13 | 4 – 12 | 5 – 11 |
Tennessee | 8 – 8 | 7 – 9 | 9 – 7* | 9 – 7* | 6 – 10 | 8 – 8 |
Washington | 0 – 16 | 9 – 7 | 8 – 8 | 7 – 9 | 0 – 16 | 5 – 11 |
* = correct guess
+ = if you count a tie in the loss column
IPT: 0
DP: 2
MPWLS: 1
IPTLS: 2
DPE: 1
AVG: 3
This was a step down from last year. On the other hand it continues to provide a good example of the wisdom of crowds (hint: it depends on independent conclusions) because the average guess got the most right.
2020
Now that the 2020 schedule is out, I have setup the 2020 NFL predictions. Here is my summary of the results:
2020 Summary
Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):
- Buffalo Bills = 11-5
- Los Angeles Rams = 10-6
- Minnesota Vikings = 11-5
- San Francisco 49ers = 13-3
- Seattle Seahawks = 7-9
Looks fairly reasonable, actually.
2020 Full Predictions
Team | ITP | DP | MPWLS | ITPLS | DPE | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 1 – 15 | 3 – 13 | 6 – 10 | 5 – 11 | 2 – 14 | 3 – 13 |
Atlanta | 10 – 6 | 12 – 4 | 6 – 10 | 7 – 9 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7 |
Baltimore | 11 – 5 | 8 – 8 | 16 – 0 | 16 – 0 | 9 – 7 | 12 – 4 |
Buffalo | 16 – 0 | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 | 14 – 2 | 13 – 3 |
Carolina | 13 – 3 | 14 – 2 | 1 – 15 | 2 – 14 | 13 – 3 | 9 – 7 |
Chicago | 0 – 16 | 1 – 15 | 5 – 11 | 8 – 8 | 4 – 12 | 4 – 12 |
Cincinnati | 16 – 0 | 9 – 7 | 2 – 14 | 0 – 16 | 13 – 3 | 8 – 8 |
Cleveland | 6 – 10 | 2 – 14 | 7 – 9 | 4 – 12 | 4 – 12 | 5 – 11 |
Dallas | 4 – 12 | 3 – 13 | 14 – 2 | 9 – 7 | 5 – 11 | 7 – 9 |
Denver | 14 – 2 | 12 – 4 | 5 – 11 | 6 – 10 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7 |
Detroit | 13 – 3 | 9 – 7 | 3 – 13 | 1 – 15 | 4 – 12 | 6 – 10 |
Green Bay | 4 – 12 | 4 – 12 | 11 – 5 | 14 – 2 | 6 – 10 | 8 – 8 |
Houston | 3 – 13 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7 | 12 – 4 | 2 – 14 | 7 – 9 |
Indianapolis | 10 – 6 | 4 – 12 | 9 – 7 | 6 – 10 | 11 – 5 | 8 – 8 |
Jacksonville | 12 – 4 | 7 – 9 | 2 – 14 | 5 – 11 | 15 – 1 | 8 – 8 |
Kansas City | 8 – 8 | 4 – 12 | 14 – 2 | 14 – 2 | 9 – 7 | 10 – 6 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 2 – 14 | 0 – 16 | 10 – 6 | 2 – 14 | 5 – 11 | 4 – 12 |
Los Angeles Rams | 10 – 6 | 10 – 6 | 10 – 6 | 9 – 7 | 11 – 5 | 10 – 6 |
Miami | 5 – 11 | 7 – 9 | 0 – 16 | 2 – 14 | 6 – 10 | 4 – 12 |
Minnesota | 16 – 0 | 11 – 5 | 14 – 2 | 11 – 5 | 11 – 5 | 13 – 3 |
New England | 14 – 2 | 13 – 3 | 15 – 1 | 13 – 3 | 5 – 11 | 12 – 4 |
New Orleans | 10 – 6 | 8 – 8 | 14 – 2 | 16 – 0 | 6 – 10 | 11 – 5 |
New York Giants | 15 – 1 | 7 – 9 | 3 – 13 | 3 – 13 | 16 – 0 | 9 – 7 |
New York Jets | 3 – 13 | 8 – 8 | 3 – 13 | 7 – 9 | 8 – 8 | 6 – 10 |
Oakland | 0 – 16 | 9 – 7 | 2 – 14 | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 | 6 – 10 |
Philadelphia | 0 – 16 | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 | 11 – 5 | 5 – 11 | 7 – 9 |
Pittsburgh | 5 – 11 | 9 – 7 | 8 – 8 | 9 – 7 | 5 – 11 | 7 – 9 |
San Francisco | 13 – 3 | 13 – 3 | 15 – 1 | 15 – 1 | 13 – 3 | 14 – 2 |
Seattle | 6 – 10 | 7 – 9 | 7 – 9 | 13 – 3 | 3 – 13 | 7 – 9 |
Tampa Bay | 4 – 12 | 8 – 8 | 10 – 6 | 6 – 10 | 8 – 8 | 7 – 9 |
Tennessee | 2 – 14 | 8 – 8 | 14 – 2 | 10 – 6 | 4 – 12 | 8 – 8 |
Washington | 10 – 6 | 11 – 5 | 0 – 16 | 1 – 15 | 13 – 3 | 7 – 9 |
I’m still not used to having teams in LA. And I haven’t the time right now to relocate the Raiders in my formulae, so just switch Oakland and Las Vegas in your head.
Enjoy the predictions, but there are caveats: if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void. Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void. Same thing with new coaches.
There is no remembrance of earlier things; And also of the later things which will occur, There will be for them no remembrance Among those who will come later still.
Ecclesiastes 1:11
This little article thingy was written by Some Guy sometime around 1:30 pm and has been carefully placed in the Sports category.