Some Blog Site

A metric that has been gaining attention lately is Yards Per Point (YPP).

What good is a metric if not for ranking things?

And what good are rankings but to tell you who is better?

And how do you truly know which teams are better except for when they play each other?

Thus, I have incorporated YPP into my list of football team rankings. Really, though, it’s not rankings so much as it is an attempt at predicting winners (moneyline. I have yet to incorporate spreads).

We can know how good a metric is by using it to predict winners and then comparing the actual winners.

YPP is not all that impressive.

It’s better than randomly picking a team, but not as good as most of the other metrics.

Go view YPP values and results for the years 2006-present.

So Johnny Manziel is facing an investigation by the NCAA that he violated rules by selling autographs. If I were his speechwriter, this is what I would give to him for his press conference.

Howdy.

There are many fine college football programs throughout the country, especially Texas A & M. They operate under the governance of the NCAA, whose rules I recently violated. Because of that, I am facing a suspension from NCAA football.

I have decided not to serve the suspension.

The NCAA was organized to protect the interests of student athletes, but as time has progressed the NCAA has evolved into an entity that makes millions of dollars off student athletes while denying them the opportunity to capitalize on their own status.

In short, NCAA football programs are for-profit, minor-league football teams, despite the NCAA’s pretending otherwise.

It is time for the NCAA to update their archaic, confusing, and irrelevant rules. It is time for them to acknowledge the increased demands of today’s student athletes and compensate them – or let them be compensated – accordingly.

To call the NCAA’s bluff, and because I can afford to do so, I am forfeiting my remaining years of eligibility. I will play Arena Football for a year or two, until I and my agent feel I am ready for the NFL.

I hope to open the NCAA’s eyes to the fact that more and more people are tired of their hypocritical regulations. Maybe if enough of us leave the NCAA and play in the equivalent of minor-league teams, we can effect some positive change.

Oh, and there are way too many bowl games. Reduce the number and keep bowl appearances special and meaningful.

God bless, and gig ’em Aggies.

Manziel already has his name recorded enough in history – Heisman trophy winner and all that. But if he really wants to cement his legacy, really wants to make news, he should do something other than accept the NCAA’s punishment. It might appear that he has a bad attitude – “Nobody can tell me what to do, I’m going to take my ball and go home!” – but if he phrases it the right way it could work. He should not compare his effort directly to the civil rights movement of decades ago, as that would be too presumptious (“I’m the Rosa Parks of NCAA football.”)

If, every year, the NCAA is investigating or suspending more and more players for selling either merchandise or autographs or appearances, at what point do they realize they can’t keep the system the way it is? A better analogy than civil rights might be the repeal of the Prohibition. No basic human rights involved, just can’t keep people from doing what they want.

During the NHL playoffs, I heard the announcer recite a statistic that went something like this:

The team that scores the first goal in the game goes on to win the game about 80% of the time.

They then went on saying how it was important for their team to score first so they would have the advantage. They were implying that scoring the first goal improves a team’s chances of winning.

I think they were using that statistic backwards.

It’s not that scoring the goal makes you a better team; it’s that the better team usually scores the first goal.

Think about it – the better team usually wins the game. So we know that the better team usually scores more goals. If both teams have an even distribution of goals across time, then the team with more goals is more likely to score the first goal. Also the last goal.

What good is that statistic? How does it help anyone? Should teams concentrate on scoring the first goal because it will mean they’ll win more games?

I can produce a statistic that is equally helpful – the team that scores more points wins 100% of those games.

Don’t worry about scoring first. Worry about scoring more goals. Chances are good that some of those goals will be before the other team’s goals.

In summary, scoring first is not going to win you a game – being a better team is.

In the last week or two, we had the announcement of the 2013 NFL schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.

2012 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

• Buffalo Bills = 5-11

How they actually did was

• Buffalo Bills = 6-10

Not too bad…

(more…)

With the NFL draft next week and people getting back into NFL mode for a little bit, I thought it would be fun to predict some possible headlines that Lions fans could see this season.

Lions Spend First Two Draft Picks on Wide Receiver and Running Back
“We are sticking with our policy of drafting the best player available, regardless of need,” stated the team official.

Hanson Extends Streak to 22 Years without Winning at Green Bay
“Don’t feel too bad, no one here knows what it’s like to win there,” a teammate consoled him on the trip back to Detroit.

Due to a Little-Known Rule, Schwartz Unable to Challenge Opponent’s Key Touchdown
NFL admits they like putting in different obscure rules just to see if the Lions can find them.

Suh’s Injuring of Opponent Ruled Accidental
“He will not be fined since he thought he was punching the ball,” stated one league official involved in the review of the incident.

Stafford Sets New Record for Most Yards Gained Without a Touchdown
The stretch of throwing for 3,000 yards while scoring only field goals will probably never be equaled, say analysts.

I realize the Hanson headline doesn’t work now that he has retired, but he wasn’t retired when I wrote it. If it really bothers you, then I guess you could substitute just about any other Lions player for Hanson.

Reader’s Digest has a popular feature where they find some sources from a particular industry and gets tips and insider secrets from them. I think the point is so that you’ll know better how to deal with the system if you need their services. Examples are “13 Things Your Dentist Won’t Tell You” or “13 Things Your Flight Attendant Won’t Tell You” or “13 Things Your Pharmacist Won’t Tell You”.

They seem to have covered all the major industries, so I am going to cover one I doubt they will get: the friendly neighborhood runner. Yes, “runner” as in “person who runs”. Distance runner, as I don’t know how many of these will apply to sprinters.

1. There is no runner’s high.
2. I don’t know what endorphins are.
3. I run only because I have no athletic skills or talent for any other sport.
4. Actually, that’s not true. I run so that I can eat more chocolate.
5. Don’t get too close to me while I’m running – I might blow my nose or spit on you.
6. Don’t follow me if I take a sudden detour into the woods – I’m making my own port-a-potty.
7. No, I didn’t quite get the time I wanted in that race. But I’ll always have a good reason why.
8. I’m not really stretching – I’m just tired and don’t want you to know.
9. I’m not runing on the sidewalk because it ends soon and I don’t want to run through the puddle/tall grass/other hazard that’s there.
10. I can’t see you through your windshield. I wave at most cars, just in case you are waving at me.
11. Even though I might not see you, just wave if you want to be friendly. I’ve had people slow their cars and ask questions or try to chat. Not only is that awkward, but it messes up my breathing rhythm and my pace.
12. I would rather you moved over than slowed down while driving by me. Both would be nice, but it’s easier for me to tell when you’ve moved over than slowed. I like to know that you have seen me.
13. I don’t care how friendly your dog is – I don’t want it following me or running along with me.

And no, these aren’t all mine – some of them are based on my observations of other runners.

1. I have an idea for what I would do if I were in charge of creating a commercial that would air during the Super Bowl.

It would require some cooperation from the network. It should be near the beginning of the 4th quarter. The commercial would start with the actual announcers for the Super Bowl – the viewers should not be able to tell that it is a commercial, they should think it’s the game returning from commercial break.
The announcers would say something like “Welcome back to Super Bowl XLVII, where the Baltimore Ravens are about to”
And then, abruptly, cutting off the announcers, viewers would see the opening of Heidi. Of course, Heidi would run for several seconds before giving way to the actual product pitch. I have no idea what products would be a good fit, or how that transition would occur, but that’s what I have so far.

2. In case you’re wondering, my favorite commercial was the Ram truck farmer commercial. In case you’re not wondering, my favorite commercial still was the Ram truck farmer commercial.

3. We watched the game at my brother-in-law/sister-in-law’s house. The plan was to watch the first half, drive home during halftime (during which the younger kids would fall asleep so we could transfer them right to bed), and watch the second half at home.

Things didn’t go as planned. Halftime started and we realized that we didn’t start the dessert on time. So we made and ate dessert during halftime.

Since the Ravens were winning by a significant amount, I didn’t feel bad missing the 3rd quarter. As I was warming up and loading the minivan, my nephew informed me that the Ravens ran the kickoff back for a touchdown, so it was now 28-6. “Perfect!” I thought. So we left.

“Can we listen to the game?” Alpha asked, as soon as we left the driveway. He seemed to be into the game. I found the station I thought should be carrying the game, but it wasn’t coming in very well. But they were talking about the game, so I left it and figured we would deal with the poor signal. We soon found out that the radio signal was fine – it sounded bad because the announcer was talking through a telephone because the Superdome power went out.

The half-hour drive home happened during the Super Bowl power outage instead of during halftime. Things didn’t go as planned – they went better than planned. Who would want to sit and watch a blackout for 30 minutes of TV?

I figured the younger two would fall asleep and I would transfer them to bed but the older two would want to watch the rest of the game – especially since Beta is into sports as much as he is. Beta fell asleep on the drive. I woke him when we got home, asked him if he wanted to watch the game or go to bed, and was surprised when he chose bed. So, Alpha and I watched the rest of the game. He doesn’t normally stay up that late. I bet that teachers don’t like the day after the Super Bowl because they have to deal all day with a bunch of kids that stayed up too late. Monday was an early bedtime.

4. The Ravens players certainly time things well. I’m not talking about their playing – I mean the administrative-type stuff. Ray Lewis won the Super Bowl for his very last football game, and Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl on the last game before his first real contract negotiation. That’s quite a bargaining chip.

5. If you are to perform the national anthem, the only thing you should add to the song is emotion.

6. My sister-in-law knew the Ravens were going to win when she saw the Harbaughs greet each other on the field before the game. John looked relaxed and Jim looked tense. Of course, they always look that way. She’s right though – in general, if you are relaxed you will play/coach better than if you are tense. Not too relaxed though – you still want to care about the game.

7. I knew the Ravens were going to win because, of all the players the camera showed us during the national anthem, only one was singing along. That was Ray Lewis, of the Ravens.

The base expectation is that a player will stand respectfully and face the flag during The Star-Spangled Banner. But if players are doing something else, I will judge them accordingly. A lot of times, I know nothing else about a player, so my only knowledge of him is how he behaved during the national anthem. If he is goofing off or warming up or otherwise not paying attention, I’ll root against him (if I have no other rooting interests). Likewise, if a player is singing along, I’ll cheer for him.