Some Blog Site

Reader’s Digest has a popular feature where they find some sources from a particular industry and gets tips and insider secrets from them. I think the point is so that you’ll know better how to deal with the system if you need their services. Examples are “13 Things Your Dentist Won’t Tell You” or “13 Things Your Flight Attendant Won’t Tell You” or “13 Things Your Pharmacist Won’t Tell You”.

They seem to have covered all the major industries, so I am going to cover one I doubt they will get: the friendly neighborhood runner. Yes, “runner” as in “person who runs”. Distance runner, as I don’t know how many of these will apply to sprinters.

1. There is no runner’s high.
2. I don’t know what endorphins are.
3. I run only because I have no athletic skills or talent for any other sport.
4. Actually, that’s not true. I run so that I can eat more chocolate.
5. Don’t get too close to me while I’m running – I might blow my nose or spit on you.
6. Don’t follow me if I take a sudden detour into the woods – I’m making my own port-a-potty.
7. No, I didn’t quite get the time I wanted in that race. But I’ll always have a good reason why.
8. I’m not really stretching – I’m just tired and don’t want you to know.
9. I’m not runing on the sidewalk because it ends soon and I don’t want to run through the puddle/tall grass/other hazard that’s there.
10. I can’t see you through your windshield. I wave at most cars, just in case you are waving at me.
11. Even though I might not see you, just wave if you want to be friendly. I’ve had people slow their cars and ask questions or try to chat. Not only is that awkward, but it messes up my breathing rhythm and my pace.
12. I would rather you moved over than slowed down while driving by me. Both would be nice, but it’s easier for me to tell when you’ve moved over than slowed. I like to know that you have seen me.
13. I don’t care how friendly your dog is – I don’t want it following me or running along with me.

And no, these aren’t all mine – some of them are based on my observations of other runners.

1. I have an idea for what I would do if I were in charge of creating a commercial that would air during the Super Bowl.

It would require some cooperation from the network. It should be near the beginning of the 4th quarter. The commercial would start with the actual announcers for the Super Bowl – the viewers should not be able to tell that it is a commercial, they should think it’s the game returning from commercial break.
The announcers would say something like “Welcome back to Super Bowl XLVII, where the Baltimore Ravens are about to”
And then, abruptly, cutting off the announcers, viewers would see the opening of Heidi. Of course, Heidi would run for several seconds before giving way to the actual product pitch. I have no idea what products would be a good fit, or how that transition would occur, but that’s what I have so far.

2. In case you’re wondering, my favorite commercial was the Ram truck farmer commercial. In case you’re not wondering, my favorite commercial still was the Ram truck farmer commercial.

3. We watched the game at my brother-in-law/sister-in-law’s house. The plan was to watch the first half, drive home during halftime (during which the younger kids would fall asleep so we could transfer them right to bed), and watch the second half at home.

Things didn’t go as planned. Halftime started and we realized that we didn’t start the dessert on time. So we made and ate dessert during halftime.

Since the Ravens were winning by a significant amount, I didn’t feel bad missing the 3rd quarter. As I was warming up and loading the minivan, my nephew informed me that the Ravens ran the kickoff back for a touchdown, so it was now 28-6. “Perfect!” I thought. So we left.

“Can we listen to the game?” Alpha asked, as soon as we left the driveway. He seemed to be into the game. I found the station I thought should be carrying the game, but it wasn’t coming in very well. But they were talking about the game, so I left it and figured we would deal with the poor signal. We soon found out that the radio signal was fine – it sounded bad because the announcer was talking through a telephone because the Superdome power went out.

The half-hour drive home happened during the Super Bowl power outage instead of during halftime. Things didn’t go as planned – they went better than planned. Who would want to sit and watch a blackout for 30 minutes of TV?

I figured the younger two would fall asleep and I would transfer them to bed but the older two would want to watch the rest of the game – especially since Beta is into sports as much as he is. Beta fell asleep on the drive. I woke him when we got home, asked him if he wanted to watch the game or go to bed, and was surprised when he chose bed. So, Alpha and I watched the rest of the game. He doesn’t normally stay up that late. I bet that teachers don’t like the day after the Super Bowl because they have to deal all day with a bunch of kids that stayed up too late. Monday was an early bedtime.

4. The Ravens players certainly time things well. I’m not talking about their playing – I mean the administrative-type stuff. Ray Lewis won the Super Bowl for his very last football game, and Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl on the last game before his first real contract negotiation. That’s quite a bargaining chip.

5. If you are to perform the national anthem, the only thing you should add to the song is emotion.

6. My sister-in-law knew the Ravens were going to win when she saw the Harbaughs greet each other on the field before the game. John looked relaxed and Jim looked tense. Of course, they always look that way. She’s right though – in general, if you are relaxed you will play/coach better than if you are tense. Not too relaxed though – you still want to care about the game.

7. I knew the Ravens were going to win because, of all the players the camera showed us during the national anthem, only one was singing along. That was Ray Lewis, of the Ravens.

The base expectation is that a player will stand respectfully and face the flag during The Star-Spangled Banner. But if players are doing something else, I will judge them accordingly. A lot of times, I know nothing else about a player, so my only knowledge of him is how he behaved during the national anthem. If he is goofing off or warming up or otherwise not paying attention, I’ll root against him (if I have no other rooting interests). Likewise, if a player is singing along, I’ll cheer for him.

Since Beta enjoyed last season’s hockey game so much, we scheduled another one for this year. We expanded and brought Gamma too.

This year’s event was a little more eventful than last year’s – overtime and shootout just like two years ago.

Traditions

It is our tradition that, during the first intermission, Beta gets a cup of hot chocolate. This year was no different, except I got Gamma a cup of hot chocolate too. Most of the second period was spent blowing on his hot chocolate so that it would be cool enough for him to drink.

I got a soft pretzel and shared it with the boys. That worked out well, much better than the overpriced almonds last year.

Another tradition is that we sit by the Zamboni entrance. That way the kids can watch closely as it drives by.

(more…)

I thought I would see if there were any correlation between margin of victory (MOV) in the NFL playoffs and victory in the Super Bowl.

Short answer: No.

Long answer: Noooooooo.

Real answer: Maybe.

I went back over the last 15 years and found that the team that wins the divisional round by the most points (not scores the most points but has the highest margin of victory of the 4 divisional-round games) goes on to win the Super Bowl about 33% of the time.

This year, that was the 49ers. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Then I wondered about the conference round. The team that has the highest margin of victory in the conference round goes on to win the Super Bowl about 30% of the time.

This year, that was the Ravens. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds:
33% chance the 49ers will win
33% chance the Ravens will win
33% chance left over – apparently it’s a 1 in 3 shot that no one will win.

But since that can’t happen, I checked what happens when the Super Bowl pits the team with the best MOV in the divisional round against the team with the best MOV in the conference round. That has happened 3 times in the last 15 years – once the division round won and twice the conference round won.

So I guess that means the Ravens will (likely) win the Super Bowl. But since that was only 3 samples, I doubt there is much in the way of correlation there.

As a Michigan fan, I was cheering for Tom Brady. I know he lost, but there is still hope since there is another former Michigan quarterback in the Super Bowl – Harbaugh.

I haven’t decided yet for whom I will cheer in the Super Bowl. Probably the Ravens, but I don’t know why. I don’t have a strong inclination either way. I just hope it’s a good game and the ads are appropriate for all ages.

Inspired by Lance Armstrong’s news from a couple days ago, I have updated the list of the last several years of cycling world champions.

• 2011
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2010
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2009
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2008
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2007
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2006
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2005
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2004
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2003
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2002
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2001
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2000
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1999
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1998
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1997
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1996
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1995
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1994
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1993
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —

It seems that every winner is eventually accused of doping or otherwise using performance-enhancing drugs, so this is what the list of champions should look like. The cycling world can save some time by immediately stripping the next winner of his title, right after after they award it to him.

I’m a little behind the times, as usual, but various sportswriters have produced their end-of-the-season rankings for NFL quarterbacks. I found one of them for the top 10, and I updated it slightly. See if you can figure out what I changed.

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Tom Brady, NE
3. Peyton Manning, DEN
4. Robert Griffin III, WAS
5. Russell Wilson, SEA
6. Matt Ryan, ATL
7. Andrew Luck, IND
8. Colin Kaepernick, SF
9. Whoever Throws to Calvin Johnson, DET
10. Drew Brees, NO

Okay, okay, it is 2013 at this point, but the results are headlines as 2012 because they match with the 2012 predictions made in 2012 for the 2012 season. Also, the results are not all-haiku, just the predictions were. A more accurate title would be “Results for the All-Haiku Predictions made in 2012”.

Before the bowl games commenced for this past college football season, I made some predictions. Here, for your reading enjoyment, is the tally of those predictions. Note that the results are not in haiku form, in contrast to the predictions.

Results

Here is the list (correct predictions in green, incorrect in red):

Arizona over Nevada

Utah St. over Toledo

San Diego St. over BYU

Central Florida over Ball St.

Louisiana-Lafayette over East Carolina

Boise St.over Washington

Fresno St. over SMU

Western Kentucky over Central Michigan

Cincinnati over Duke

San Jose St. over Bowling Green

UCLA over Baylor

Rutgers over Virginia Tech

Texas Tech over Minnesota

Ohio over Louisiana-Monroe

Oregon St. over Texas

Air Force over Rice

West Virginia over Syracuse

Arizona St. over Navy

TCU over Michigan St.

Southern Cal over Georgia Tech

Vanderbilt over N. Carolina St.

Iowa St. over Tulsa

LSU over Clemson

Oklahoma St. over Purdue

Michigan over South Carolina

Georgia over Nebraska

Northwestern over Mississippi St.

Stanford over Wisconsin

Florida St. over Northern Illinois

Florida over Louisville

Kansas St. over Oregon

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Pitt over Mississippi

Arkansas St. over Kent St.

Notre Dame over Alabama

And here are the results of the various forecasting methodologies (see the first year for description of the methodologies) (also, use the word methodologies if you want to sound important; methods would work just as well and is shorter) :

• Some Blog Site picks were 18-17 (worse than last year)
• CBS120 picks were 19-16
• HTW was 21-14 for the official Home Team Wins (HTW)
• HTW was 24-11 for the Geographical Home Team (GHT)
• Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate (ITP) was 17-18 if using HTW
• ITP was 19-16 if using GHT

I won’t analyze the results as much as I did last year, mainly because I had more time and more sleep last year. But it was a good year all predictors – every method was over 50%. I just need to figure how to better predict outcomes. Especially against the spread.

Thoughts on the season’s results

1. That was a nice playoff round. Now let’s have the championship game between Alabama and Texas A&M. I know the BCS has Oregon as the number 2 team, but I think the Aggies could beat the Ducks. Too bad we’ll never know…
2. You know what? – we should just skip the national championship game and give the title to the winner of the SEC again. I predicted as much last year, so let’s keep the streak going.

Conferences

Since the strength of the conference has something to do with the results, I thought I would tally each conference’s bowl game record for the 2012 (and the first bit of 2013) season.

• ACC: 4-2
• Big 10: 2-5
• Big 12: 4-5
• Big East: 3-2
• Independent: 1-2
• MAC: 2-5
• MW: 1-4
• PAC12: 4-4
• SEC: 6-3
• Sun Belt: 2-2
• USA: 4-1
• WAC: 2-0

So the best conference was the WAC (they won 100% of their bowl games) and the worst was the Mountain West (at 20% – if you are not Boise St., then you didn’t win).

Or maybe the WAC is the worst conference because they sent the fewest teams to bowl games again this year.

Perhaps you could say that the Big 12 and SEC were the best because they had 9 teams go to bowls. Or you could say they were just the most popular conferences.

Perhaps you could say that the SEC was the best because they won the championship (again). Or maybe the SEC is the best because they won the most bowls (at 6).

I don’t know what happened to the MWC. They used to win their bowl games, and Boise St. was supposed to strengthen the conference. They ended below 0.500 in bowls this year again.

Since the conferences are going to change slightly for next football season, who knows which the strong bowl conferences will be? But if I must predict, I’m saying Conf. USA will win 80% of its bowl games again. I’ll also make the standard prediction that the SEC will win the BCS again.